Highlights of the Week
Pentagon invests in MP Materials, installs a price floor for NdPr oxide at $110/kg (almost double China’s current rates)
Apple strikes a $500 million partnership with MP Materials (yes, twice at the highlights) to produce recycled rare earth magnets in the United States
Xinjiang’s Tarim Basin reveals the world’s deepest industrial uranium sandstone deposit at 1,820 meters, opening promise and technical peril for China’s ISR future
China discovers 1.3Mt of lithium oxide in Hunan province, bolstering domestic EV material leverage
Siemens Gamesa pivots magnet sourcing amid tightening Chinese export timelines (OEMs scrambling)
Kazakhstan enters the gallium market to rival China’s control of this critical semiconductor metal
Rare Earths: from delivery delays to industrial defense
Supply stability and timelines now matter more than price. Siemens Gamesa just started paying premiums to get magnets out of China’s bottlenecked grip (and it is not alone). Chinese delivery delays have gone from “tight” to “don’t count on it.”.
On a recent report from Morgan Stanley, prices decoupled from China, currently measured in EU are going through the roof:
Governments are catching on. The Pentagon’s $400M equity move into MP Materials and its $110/kg NdPr price floor signals a clear path: protect the magnet midstream or risk supply breakdowns in defense and transport alike.
I’m not sure about you, but from my experience, when The Pentagon gets involved, it’s because things are getting serious.
And if this wasn’t good news enough for MP’s shareholders, two days later it announces an outstanding deal with Apple (yes, the tech company): a $500 million multi-year partnership agreement to lock in rare earth magnet supply for its iPhones, iPads, and Macs.
MP will supply Apple with NdFeB magnets produced from rare earths mined and refined in the U.S.
First deliveries expected from Fort Worth, Texas magnet facility, which MP aims to fully commission in 2025
Apple becomes one of the few major OEMs securing direct supply-chain traceability from mine to product
The deal is part of Apple’s goal to use recycled and domestic materials and decouple from Chinese sourcing
Why this matters:
Apple alone uses ~5% of global NdFeB magnet output; this is not a PR move, it’s supply security
The partnership incentivizes rare earth recycling at scale, helping establish market pull for circular midstream
If scaled, MP’s Fort Worth plant could eventually recycle ~2,000 tonnes/year of NdFeB, equal to 5–8 million smartphones' worth of magnet material
Sets a precedent: tech giants are no longer just consumers, they’re becoming actors in critical mineral geopolitics
For reference, real-world end-of-life magnet recycling today is still <1% of supply, despite all efforts to increase it. Our view on it: too complex. We have built our supply chain without thinking about the end-of-life of things, and for rare earths, we are talking about structural barriers in collection and inefficiency, embedded component disassembly cost, and complex multi-element separation chemistry (without even knowing the component composition). (We could have an entire discussion only on this – please let us know if that is something that interests you).
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan's $20M investment to produce 15 tonnes of gallium annually breaks China’s near-monopoly on a key chipmaking input, and sends a message: every minor metal now matters.
India and Australia are also stepping up. India’s Critical Minerals Mission is funding 1,200 projects and a new rare earth processing hub, while Australia’s Donald Project is emerging as a global top-five REE mine. The West isn't just diversifying. It’s localizing.
Uranium: China’s ultra-deep gamble in Tarim Basin
China just stunned the uranium world. Deep beneath Xinjiang’s Tarim Basin, it discovered the world’s deepest known sandstone-hosted uranium deposit at 1,820 meters.
Why this matters:
China gets over 80% of its uranium from abroad; this could flip the game
Global ISR (in-situ recovery) uranium projects usually average 300–600m deep. This one’s triple that
Sandstone-hosted deposits are ISR-friendly in theory, but at this depth, theory gets much complicated
The 4 core challenges at 1,820m depth:
1. Wellbore Pressure and IntegrityAt nearly 2km deep, downhole pressures can exceed 20,000 psi.Casing must withstand thermal expansion, high-permeability zones, and risk of mechanical deformation during injection cycles.Multi-stage cementing and real-time well monitoring (e.g., fiber optic DAS/DTS) become mandatory.
2. Oxidant Efficiency and ISR ChemistryISR recovery relies on oxidizing agents (H₂O₂, O₂), but heat and pressure degrade them.At >1,500m, oxidant half-life shortens, and fluid control across target horizons becomes far less predictable.Expect reagent overconsumption and high chemical OPEX unless new stabilizers are used.
3. Hydrogeology and Flow ModelingSandstone formations at this depth often feature low permeability and compartmentalized porosity, complicating sweep efficiency.Traditional ISR assumes uniform flow fronts; Tarim’s geometry likely invalidates that.Simultaneous leaching zones must be individually calibrated using crosswell tomography and tracer diagnostics.
4. Environmental ContainmentAt these pressures, any casing breach means contaminated leachate under high pressure, with hard-to-control vertical migration.Full containment requires zonal isolation, long-term casing corrosion resistance, and extensive aquifer separation modeling.
Bottom line:
If successful, this deposit could cut China's uranium import dependence by 10–15%
But technically, it demands the convergence of deep-oil well engineering, ISR process redesign, and AI-driven hydro-modeling
Even with success, OPEX may exceed conventional ISR by 40–60%
The Tarim play is not a regular mine; it’s an experiment at the edge of physics, chemistry, and national ambition.
Meanwhile, global uranium prices continue to rise quietly. Sprott raised another $200M. Yellow Cake is stockpiling. And AI data centers are quietly signing nuclear PPAs. The uranium wave isn’t loud, but it’s slowly building momentum.
Lithium: Innovation beneath the glut
China’s 540Mt ore discovery in Hunan, grading 1.31Mt lithium oxide, isn’t just geology, it’s a wake-up call.
Not just because of the size, but because it signals Beijing’s renewed grip over long-term EV value chains.
That said, resource ≠ supply. Processing timelines, ESG reviews, and infrastructure bottlenecks mean the lithium isn’t coming online tomorrow. But psychologically, the market feels the pressure.
Elsewhere, the action is in tech:
Liontown starts underground production in Australia with Ford and Tesla contracts in hand
Sustainable Projects Group goes live with a DLE project in Alberta, aiming for 9,000 tonnes/year
ILiAD+ shows impurity rejection >85%, a milestone for scalable DLE at lower cost
Sion Power just doubled energy density in pilot-scale lithium-metal cells, cutting pack cost by 15%
R&D is working to build a price floor, where better purity, faster extraction, and smarter reagent usage offset falling spot prices. We’re seeing that floor start to hold.
Copper recap: The Tariff heard around the World
(Note: this recap is relevant for context, such a move will have its implications/blast radius felt for long).
Washington’s 50% copper tariff hits in August. Miners are furious. Smelters are bracing. Investors are... buying.
A 13% price jump in a single day says it all: this was a supply shock in policy clothing.
But here’s the thing: this isn’t about economics. It’s about control. Imports are far outpacing U.S. production. And the White House is betting tariffs can bring refining back (or at least buy time for recyclers and juniors).
Producers are panicking. Codelco called the policy “ambiguous” and “anxiety-inducing.” Nobody knows whether concentrates, semis, or rods are in the crosshairs.
And while the U.S. tries to build muscle, others are tightening:
Indonesia’s ban on copper exports has frozen 200,000 tonnes in the country
Antofagasta cut a zero-dollar treatment deal with China—yes, $0—highlighting extreme smelter tightness
Meanwhile, Ivanhoe Electric’s Santa Cruz project will deliver 72ktpa copper cathode using 70% renewable power and 75% opex cuts
Copper’s no longer a neutral metal. It's turning into a chess piece, with tariffs, recycling subsidies, and AI server buildouts dictating demand curves. We should all keep that in mind!
Things you probably missed (but shouldn’t)
Self-Healing Cathodes: New lithium-metal chemistry (Li₁.₁Fe₀.₆Cl) keeps >90% capacity after 3,000 cycles.
Rain City’s ACCELi pilot: Extracted lithium from Marcellus brine with 94% purity.
Orpheus Ocean’s AUV: Mapped 5,600 meters of seabed in the Mariana Trench, targeting polymetallic nodules.
Vanadium Gets Chic: Japan’s Sumitomo replaced lithium with vanadium redox flow batteries for long-duration storage.
AI Cools with Copper: 3D-printed copper cold plates now cool 120kW data racks. Data centers are turning into copper customers.
As always, stay ahead with the Critical Minerals Journal — where insight meets impact.
