[CW35] ex-China HREE pathways emerging; Copper joins U.S. Critical Minerals list; Canada-Germany cooperation; Lithium projects de-risk

Let’s jump straight to this week’s highlights:

Non‑China feed moves from talk to term sheets: Critical Metals Corp signed a 10‑year offtake LOI to supply HREE concentrate from Greenland’s Tanbreez to Ucore Rare Metals for its Louisiana processing plant, which has U.S. Defense Department support. The agreement sketches a pathway for initial feed as early as 2027, with Ucore guiding to multi‑thousand‑tonne oxide output as capacity ramps. Background financing signals include a U.S. EXIM letter of interest for Tanbreez earlier this summer.

Prices react to U.S. supply rerouting: Neodymium–praseodymium prices touched a two‑year high after MP Materials halted concentrate shipments to China in favor of U.S. refining under a government deal, temporarily removing roughly 7%-9% of China’s NdPr oxide supply and lifting the China benchmark from about ~$65 to ~$90 per kilogram. The rally highlighted how quickly magnet feedstock balances can tighten when cross‑border flows change and government incentives are put in place.

Despite the price reaction, Lynas Rare Earths reported a sharp profit drop for FY25 of 90.5%, reaching a shy $8 million. Additionally, it launched an approximately A$750 million equity raise at a discount and cautioned that continuation of its Texas heavy‑rare‑earths plant is not assured as the company seeks commercially viable offtake. Management also flagged magnet ambitions via partnerships. Investors read it as a pragmatic refocus on core cash‑flow projects while keeping optionality on downstream.

Policy keeps the tape jumpy: U.S. President Trump said China must supply the United States with magnets or face a 200% tariff (you read correctly, two hundred). Market commentary through the week framed rare earths and chips as mutual pressure points in U.S.–China relations.

India edges forward: At its AGM, Hindustan Zinc told shareholders it is exploring rare earths and seeking global partners for AI‑ and drone‑enabled exploration. The company has previously been named among successful bidders for a rare‑earth block in the fifth auction round, underscoring New Delhi’s drive to diversify supply.

Uranium’s weekly spot reference hovered around the mid‑70s dollars per pound. Beneath the calm, DOE hit a 2025 milestone by converting more than 1,000 cylinders of depleted uranium hexafluoride at the Paducah and Portsmouth facilities. That is environmental management, not mine‑to‑market supply, yet it matters. It frees site bottlenecks, sharpens U.S. nuclear credibility, and keeps crewed lines warm just as commercial fuel security rises up the agenda.

Southern Cone keeps moving: NANO Nuclear Energy signed MOUs with Argentine fuel chain players, including Dioxitek and exploration groups, targeting conversion capacity and development of regional resources. It is early stage, but the direction aligns with Buenos Aires’ pro‑nuclear stance and a U.S.–Argentina cooperation framework. Investors should treat near‑term volumes cautiously while tracking policy and permitting cadence.

Producers: Ur-Energy grew Lost Creek output by 35% quarter-on-quarter to 112,033 lb U3O8 and signed its eighth long-term sales contract (100,000 lb/year from 2028–2030). That forward coverage tightens utility flex while underpinning mine re-ramp economics.

U.S. draft Critical Minerals List adds copper. DOI/USGS’ proposal elevates copper into the same strategic lane as REEs and battery metals for the first time, unlocking faster federal reviews and clearer eligibility for funding tools. The rationale references electrification, defense, and mounting grid demand from AI/data centers. Public comment is open for 30 days.

Adding copper to the critical list reshapes U.S. permitting and finance risk for mid-stream/refining as well as mines. Meanwhile, Latin America remains the discovery engine; investors will parse Ilo Este assays next month to see if it graduates from “interesting” to “emerging.”

On the new projects arising, Solis Minerals’ first hole at Ilo Este (southern Peru) returned ~350 m of visually mineralized porphyry from surface; assays are pending in September. Visuals aren’t assays, but the geometry and footprint are consistent with a large system and could slot into the medium-term pipeline if grades cooperate.

China’s futures market saw outsized moves in August, partly driven by a mid‑month supply scare and a layer of speculative froth. By late August, prices eased but held above early‑summer levels. This week’s takeaway is not euphoria but a reminder: supply can be elastic at the margins, yet small disruptions can still jar sentiment.

Australia advances de‑risking: Global Lithium Resources secured a 21‑year mining lease for the Manna project in Western Australia after finalizing a Native Title Mining Agreement with the Kakarra Part B group. It is a formal permit milestone that moves Manna closer to FID and positions the Eastern Goldfields for another mid‑tier spodumene contributor.

On the other side of the globe, Lilac Solutions reported that its Generation 4 ion‑exchange system for Lake Resources at Kachi improved modeled recovery to 90 percent and trimmed expected capex and opex in the updated DFS. If the durability and performance metrics hold at scale, Gen 4 DLE can move more brines into the investable zone.

E3 Lithium continued to highlight progress in Alberta with a multi‑million‑tonne resource base, industrial partnerships, and governance upgrades pointed at commercialization. Timelines are tight, but the strategy to pursue carbonate first and secure offtake to smooth pricing risk is sound.

And Sienna Resources picked up the Cave Creek claims in Nevada next to recent discoveries, adding optionality in a basin that is attracting claystone exploration capital. As always, at this stage, metallurgy will decide the winners.

Berlin becomes the week’s anchor: Canada and Germany signed a new Joint Declaration of Intent that targets cooperation across extraction, midstream processing, and recycling, plus task‑force coordination and more disciplined project finance. The pact lands just as Germany accelerates its own energy and defense retooling and as Canada courts continental offtake outside the United States. Expect specific midstream pilots, including refining and magnet recycling, to surface under the umbrella.

DOI/USGS published the draft 2025 Critical Minerals List for comment. Copper and silver are proposed additions, alongside other changes that better reflect the electrification system risk. Labels drive policy, from permitting priority to export controls and defense procurement. If copper stays on the final list, expect it to show up explicitly in federal incentive frameworks. And on the other side of the chart, the Rare Earths with a staggering 100% probability of shortage occurrence (meaning: ‘we are 100% dependent on China’):

China keeps the lever: New rare earth controls fold imported feed into quotas, raising the bar for tolling strategies that once relied on shipping ore or intermediates into China for final processing. That shift will push allied buyers to pre‑commit to non‑China long‑term supply, particularly heavies. It also raises the attractiveness of Western projects with verifiable ESG and traceability, given that the Chinese regime is now encoding end‑to‑end tracking.

The CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program hosted Kevin Rudd on U.S.–Australia cooperation. Canberra is considering a national critical minerals reserve and wider supply‑chain hardening, aligning well with Quad and AUKUS technology ambitions. Policy choreography across Washington and Canberra remains a force multiplier for midstream investments.

And lastly, Africa’s leverage grows: A new BCG assessment underscores the scale of opportunity if regulatory frameworks and cross‑border logistics improve. Local processing is moving from aspiration to policy in multiple capitals, and the GDP upside from a move up the value chain is material. Expect more joint‑venture refineries and regional industrial parks near ports and power.

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