[CW44] Rare Earths ignite the West; Lithium accelerates; and Uranium holds

Welcome back to CMJ,

Here are the 20-second highlights of what we’ll cover:

In the U.S., President Donald Trump signed agreements with five Southeast Asian nations (including Japan, Vietnam, and Malaysia) to develop rare earth supply chains outside of China. While details are sparse and largely non-binding, the signal is clear: The U.S. is doing everything it can to dilute China’s near-monopoly on processing critical minerals. Challenging China’s dominance will not be quick or cheap, but these pacts mark an important milestone in diversifying supply.

While diplomats shook hands, Aclara Resources made the most tangible move on Western soil. The company announced a $277 million heavy rare earth separation facility in Louisiana (the claim is that it’s the first of its kind in the U.S., but we shall not forget Ucore).Think dysprosium, terbium, didymium (Nd + Pr), and the hard-to-get metals/alloys that make the permanent magnets ‘sing’.Construction is planned to start next yea,r and by 2028, the company’s ambition is that it will meet up to three-quarters of America’s demand for HREs.Louisiana’s pitch worked: a chemical hub, a skilled workforce, a government eager to plant a flag in a new industrial frontier, and, at this point, a hub for rare earths processing facilities.The message was clear: the U.S. intends to own part of its magnet supply chain, not rent it.

India joined the action from another angle. Its new National Critical Minerals Mission pushes the country beyond its role as a raw material holder. It holds 6% of the world’s reserves but produces less than 1%.The new plan encourages public-private partnerships, seeks foreign collaboration, and could pave the way for India to emerge as an alternative supplier of rare earth oxides and magnets.It’s an industrial strategy wrapped in mineral policy, and signals India’s determination to carve a place in the next decade’s value chains (much like all the CM company’s, Countries/Nations are also in a ‘gold rush’).

Uranium stayed ‘nuclear hot’ with spot prices hovering around $80 per pound.

The price strength (especially seen during 2025) reflects a sea change in sentiment: more than 30 countries have announced plans to expand or revive nuclear power programs, aiming to roughly triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. The theme here is not ‘Energy Transition’, but rather, ‘Energy Security’.

Denison Mines’ Wheeler River project crossed another important milestone, securing provincial approval. Final licensing is pending, but if the last permits fall into place, Denison could break ground in early 2026 and potentially begin production by 2028.The metallurgy (or rather, hydrometallurgy) to be used is in-situ recovery (ISR), an efficient low-footprint method that pumps solution underground to dissolve uranium. Theoretically, quite simple, but a bit hard on ramp-ups and especially on permitting.

Still at very early stages, American Uranium kicked off a 121-hole drill campaign (~38,000 meters) to expand its Lo Herma resource, currently at 8.6 million pounds U₃O₈. Updated resources are expected by early 2026.Should results impress, American Uranium could advance to a scoping study and join the pipeline of ‘fast follower’ projects aiming to capitalize on high prices and favorable U.S. policy (including a national uranium reserve and production incentives).

Across the Pacific, Australia’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit is gearing up for production as well. The Mulga Rock mine in Western Australia is expected to come online by 2026, with an annual production of over 3.5 million pounds of U₃O₈.That’s a significant new source, roughly equivalent to 10% of current U.S. annual uranium demand.The developers call it a ‘new benchmark for sustainable uranium’. Investors like ourselves call it timely.

We’ve been following it and saw how, in recent months, a series of unfortunate events (from a giant underground mine in Chile facing outages, to the Kamoa-Kakula operation in Congo and Indonesia’s Grasberg mine encountering setbacks) have constrained global supply.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) responded by cutting its 2025 mine supply growth forecast almost in half (to just 1.4% growth, down from 2.8% last year), raising the suspicion of a looming supply deficit.With demand for copper projected to skyrocket (BHP Billiton estimates a 70% jump by 2050, driven by electrification and infrastructure), this week’s rally reflects investors’ realization that the world may not have all the copper it needs unless new sources come online FAST.

Back in Arizona, regulators took a quieter but important step. The Gunnison Copper Project got preliminary support for its in-situ leaching permit from the state’s Department of Environmental Quality. Public consultation is underway.It’s a small story with large implications. If Gunnison succeeds, ISR copper could reshape how America mines without ‘scarring’ its deserts.Note: have you noticed that this is the second critical mineral to take the in-site recovery path…? Is that a sign? Perhaps. Keep in mind that this is exactly the process used by China to recover the rare earths from ionic clays, and that ‘everyone’ claims not to be sustainable.

On the innovation side of Copper’s mining world, Rio Tinto announced it has begun piloting a battery-swap technology at its Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, with eight electric haul trucks running a rotation of 13 batteries.The concept is for a continuous operation and zero diesel downtime.The pilot, run in partnership with China’s State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC), will continue through 2026 to test the system’s performance in harsh operating conditions.We’re highlighting it because, from a market perspective, such initiatives also reflect how current prices are encouraging miners to invest in long-term productivity gains. Kudos to BHP.

If any metal defined the week’s optimism, it was lithium.

Argentina Lithium & Energy released its first-ever resource estimate for Rincon West, a 238,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in measured and indicated categories, plus 64,000 tonnes inferred. This is a solid starting base, especially at decent lithium grades (around 300 mg/L in brine).Not huge, but strategic: the project borders Rio Tinto’s Rincon, placing Argentina Lithium in the center of the ‘Lithium Triangle’s’ hottest district.And Stellantis is reportedly circling for partnerships.

Up in Quebec, Canada, another project is making headlines for its sheer scale. PMET (Patriot Battery Metals) released a feasibility study for its Shaakichiuwaanaan lithium pegmatite project: 84 million tonnes of reserves at 1.26% Li₂O, which would make it the second-largest lithium mine in the world by output, behind only the Greenbushes mine in Australia.With 20% of jobs earmarked for local Cree Nations, the project balances scale with social buy-in.The target: investment decision by late 2027.

The U.S. saw its own flurry of lithium ambition. Barrell Energy expanded its Smackover Basin footprint to 44,000 acres, cementing its status as a serious domestic brine player after a recent capital raise. The Smackover now hosts both oil majors and nimble independents racing to unlock American lithium.

Then came Pure Lithium (a name worth remembering). The Boston-born startup opened a new HQ and pilot plant in Chicago to commercialize its ‘Brine to Battery™’ process.Four years, 128 patents filed, and a bet on lithium-metal batteries twice as energy-dense as today’s cells. It’s small-scale for now, but the proof of concept is here: direct lithium metal manufacturing inside the U.S.

Europe, too, got its update. Rock Tech Lithium trimmed €50 million from its Guben Converter project Capex, now at €680 million. It also cut OPEX by 23%, signed a process optimization MoU with China’s Sichuan Calciner Technology, and reminded investors that European lithium refining is not just possible, but also competitive.The Guben Converter is designed to produce 24,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide per year, a sizable chunk of Europe’s future needs. Given Europe’s push for supply security (and the EU’s critical raw materials strategy), Rock Tech Lithium seems to have found its place.

And Japan quietly changed the rules of the game (while playing it).Starting in 2026, all battery and electronics producers must collect and recycle used devices. The target? 70% lithium and 95% nickel and cobalt recovery by 2030. The motive is clear: reduce fire risks, cut imports, and reclaim resources. Japan’s move may also influence other nations wrestling with both battery waste and material shortages, potentially setting a global example for e-waste regulation in the era of electrification. Very interesting move, worth keeping an eye on its implementation.

Geopolitics dominated the week’s headlines as nations tightened their grip on resource security.

The United States led the charge: President Trump’s diplomatic tour through Asia yielded a series of tentative rare earth agreements, signaling a coordinated push to dilute China’s dominance.From Thailand to Cambodia, mineral-rich nations are being courted as alternative partners, though translating the MoU into mines is another story. Environmental permits, infrastructure gaps, and project financing still block the path.

Canada, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, used the G7 Energy Ministers summit in Toronto to unveil a sweeping C$1.4 billion program across 25 critical minerals projects, spanning lithium, copper, graphite, and rare earths.The package blends direct investment in processing (Rio Tinto’s scandium expansion in Quebec, Ucore’s refinery upgrade in Ontario) with offtake agreements and public-private partnerships.Canada also declared certain minerals essential to national defense and will begin stockpiling them for the first time.‘Access to critical minerals is becoming a tool of geopolitical coercion’, warned the energy minister, a phrase that neatly summarizes the G7 mood.Europe joined the effort: Germany co-financed a synthetic-graphite facility in Ontario, signaling that trans-Atlantic coordination is no longer aspirational, but operational.The broader strategy is unmistakable: an alliance model for resources, where investment, technology, and offtake are shared across friendly borders.The winners will be those who can deliver reliable, transparent supply; the laggards will find themselves priced or sanctioned out of relevance.

China’s overseas footprint keeps expanding, from African mining concessions to new refining clusters at home.Its processing dominance remains overwhelming across rare earths, lithium, and graphite. Yet for the first time, it faces a coordinated bloc of consumer nations erecting parallel supply systems.The world is splitting into two supply chains: one orbiting China, the other rallying around U.S.-aligned economies.Short-term, this bifurcation raises costs (of course, ‘duplication’ is expensive). Long-term, it may insulate industries from single-point shocks.In the grand resource game, every mine, refinery, or export deal shifts leverage by a few basis points.

Thank you for reading and for being part of the CMJ community.In markets driven by geopolitics, foresight is power. If you found it valuable, share it with a peer who needs the same edge (or keep it close and use it to your advantage).