CMJ Daily Tape
TRADE FLOW | NICKEL
South Korea exported 7,834 tonnes of nickel sulphate in September, up 20.4% from August, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). Shipments to China rose 117.9%, from 2,140 tonnes to 4,663 tonnes, lifting China's share of Korean exports from 32.9% to 59.5%. Exports to Japan fell 27.4%, from 4,350 tonnes to 3,160 tonnes, and Japan's share dropped from 66.9% to 40.3%. The two markets took more than 99% of the total. South Korean imports fell 13.1% to 557 tonnes, with no arrivals from South Africa. SMM said NCM battery demand stayed weak in both China and South Korea, and that the average CIF China nickel sulphate price fell about 5.3% between October 9 and 30.
SMM's own data says the September jump went to buyers with weak NCM order books, while the CIF China price fell 5.3% in three weeks. Chinese precursor plants that took 4,663 tonnes in one month are building stock at a falling price, not running it through cathode lines. Japanese buyers cut intake by 1,190 tonnes. If Chinese precursor runs stay flat in October, the export print reverses, and Korean refiners carry the inventory themselves. The number to watch is Chinese precursor utilisation, not the export headline.
SUPPLY DISRUPTION | COPPER
Rio Tinto said on 30 October that it is progressively restarting underground operations at the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia after completing safety reviews. A seismic event on 29 October caused a localised rockfall confined to a temporary storage zone next to the production area, with no structural impact to the cave or its operating infrastructure, according to the company. Two employees continue to receive treatment for non-life-threatening injuries. Rio Tinto gave no estimate of lost production and no timetable for a full restart.
Rio Tinto's release puts the rockfall in a temporary storage zone, not in the cave. That matters more than the restart headline: an undamaged block cave loses days, not mine plan. The open question is draw rate during the ramp back. Mongolian concentrate already faces border checks on its way into China, so lost underground days stack on top of a logistics queue. Smelters taking Oyu Tolgoi concentrate should ask for revised November shipment schedules, not a revised annual number.
FINANCING | LITHIUM
Albemarle entered a credit agreement on 29 October 2026 for an unsecured revolving credit facility of up to US$1.5 billion, with JPMorgan Chase Bank as administrative agent, according to a Form 8-K filed on 30 October. The facility matures on 29 October 2031. It must keep a consolidated leverage ratio at or below 3.50:1.00 each quarter, which it may raise by 0.50 for four quarters after acquisitions financed with more than US$500 million of debt. The same day it terminated its 2022 credit agreement, due to mature on 28 October 2028.
The clause to read is not the size. It is the acquisition step-up: leverage can go to 4.00 times for a year after a debt-funded deal above US$500 million. A lithium producer does not negotiate that clause for working capital. With a five-year tenor, Albemarle has room to buy conversion capacity or resource while carbonate trades weak. Converters and developers looking for an exit should read this as a buyer clearing its balance sheet, not a company shoring up liquidity.
DEMAND OUTLOOK | RARE EARTHS
Praseodymium-neodymium metal fell from 897,500 yuan/t to 865,000 yuan/t over two weeks, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). In its 2027 scenario, SMM forecasts NdFeB demand from new-energy vehicles rising 3.74%, from 76,954 t to 79,832 t, against NEV output growth of 5.24%, as magnet content per battery-electric passenger car falls from 4.2 kg to 4.1 kg. SMM expects wind NdFeB demand to rise 20% in 2027, to roughly 12,541 t. Its conclusion: demand "will not contract" but growth "will systematically lag downstream output growth".
SMM's forecast puts the problem inside the motor, not the showroom. Cutting 0.1 kg per battery-electric car means magnet makers are designing out neodymium faster than automakers add vehicles. That is thrifting under qualification: once a motor is homologated with less magnet, the content does not come back within the same model cycle. Separation plants pricing 2027 offtakes on EV unit growth are using the wrong multiplier.
PRICING | RARE EARTHS
Lynas Rare Earths has secured minimum-price agreements covering more than half its production, The Northern Miner reported. In the three months to 30 September, Lynas' average selling price rose 88% to a record A$102.1/kg and revenue rose 55% to A$310.1 million, while sales volumes fell 18%. Lynas produced 4,254 t of rare earth oxides, including a record 2,082 t of NdPr, and sold 3,039 t. It did not disclose the floor levels and expects lower December-quarter output while its Malaysian plant shuts for about a month.
Lynas produced 4,254 tonnes and sold 3,039 in a quarter of record prices. Floors on half the output tell buyers what Lynas will accept; the gap between production and sales tells them Lynas can wait. With the Malaysian plant down for about a month in the December quarter, that stock covers the shortfall. Magnet makers outside China negotiating 2027 volumes face a seller that holds inventory and a floor, not one that needs to clear a warehouse.
