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Kazatomprom: Shareholders voting by absentee ballot until October 7 approved a spot-term contract to sell and buy natural Uranium concentrates with State Nuclear Uranium Resource Development Company Limited, 88.63% for and 6.49% against, and did not approve a major interested-party contract to supply U3O8 to Rosatom's Uranium One Group, which received 5.39% for, 6.27% against and 88.34% withheld, short of the simple majority required (RNS, October 8). The results do not say who withheld, and we cannot tell from the filing. The arithmetic is still worth noting: a block almost exactly the size of the vote that approved the Chinese contract withheld on the Russian one, in the same ballot. Where Kazakh pounds go appears to be settled by the issuer's shareholders as well as by its customers. The next marker is whether the Uranium One contract returns to a vote in amended form.

Centinela and Escondida: Some 709 workers at Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela mine in Chile, about 22% of its direct workforce, went on strike on October 7 after government mediation ended without agreement; the company says projected production is unchanged, while the two unions say they include more than half the mine's shovel and drill operators and expect output to fall by nearly half in November (Reuters, SMM). At Escondida, the supervisors' mediation, requested by the company on October 5, reached its fourth day on October 9 with no new offer, per the union. Both disputes sit on mine feed, which is where Copper is scarce. The marker is November production: whether concentrate terms move while the London price does not.

Elevra / LG Energy Solution: Elevra signed a binding agreement to supply LG Energy Solution with 240,000 dry metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate from North American Lithium in Quebec over three years from first shipment, scheduled at 30,000 tonnes in 2026, 60,000 in each of 2027 and 2028 and 90,000 in 2029, with up to 90,000 tonnes more by agreement (release, October 8). The release does not reconcile four calendar years with a three-year term. Pricing is market-linked and adjusted for Lithium content, with no floor disclosed, so the Korean cell maker is buying volume and provenance, not price protection. The first full-year test is the 2027 tranche of 60,000 tonnes.

Zimbabwe: Information minister Nick Mangwana indicated there is no reason to delay the ban on Lithium concentrate exports from January 2027, according to SMM's October 9 account, which carries no direct quote; mines minister Winston Chitando first set that date in June 2025 (Reuters). Two days earlier, the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe reported Lithium export sales of US$2.16bn in the nine months to September 30, nearly four times all of 2025, of which US$1.8bn was spodumene concentrate and US$190M Lithium sulfate (Reuters). With concentrate at 83% of earnings, the ban moves value to whoever owns conversion inside the country. On Reuters' account, that is Chinese capital: Huayou built the country's Lithium sulfate plant, and Chinese firms have invested about US$2bn in the sector since 2021. The marker is any revision to the January date, or a quota for 2027 shipments.

Titan Mining / US Army: Titan's subsidiary Empire State Mines signed a term sheet with the Department of the Army for a graphite processing plant on about 97 acres of Anniston Army Depot in Alabama, with a 50-year lease and two 25-year renewals; the company develops, finances, owns and operates it, and the Army holds a right of first offer on uncommitted output, capped at 10% of annual production (Reuters, October 7). The term sheet carries no capacity, capital cost or committed volume. The state is offering land and a first look at up to a tenth of uncommitted output, not a purchase. The marker is a capacity figure and a first anode customer.

Sigma Lithium: Sigma resumed mining and processing at Grota do Cirilo in Minas Gerais after a federal appeals court judge reinstated its environmental licences, and said it is on track to reach annualized output of 330,000 tonnes of concentrate by year-end 2027 from existing capacity (6-K, October 6). The same release says Sigma plans to resume a Phase 2 expansion in 2027 and gives no licensing status for it. The ruling restores current output, and the release is silent on whether growth is licensed. The marker is the licence position of Phase 2.

Tele-Fonika Cable Americas: The Export-Import Bank of the United States approved a US$547M loan guarantee for a proposed rubber-insulated cable plant in Waller, Texas, its first loan guarantee under the Make More in America initiative, subject to approvals, permits and financing (EXIM, October 6). Federal credit is going to a Copper consumer while the decision on a refined Copper duty from January 1, 2027 remains undisclosed. The marker is that decision.

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Market Update

Executive summary (20-second highlights):

  • The joint statement Europe and China signed in Beijing on Friday contains no quantity at all. The only figure anyone attached to it afterwards is about cars, not magnets.

  • On rare earths, China said it is willing to "continue" something. Read the verb, then read what China's own account of the same meeting leaves out.

  • Every rare earth outcome the United States and the European Union have obtained since September has the same shape, and none of it would appear in a customs series.

  • A Copper smelter in the Congo realized about US$900 a tonne for its sulfuric acid last quarter, double the quarter before. China's guidance price for its own smelters' acid sits below a Chinese spot price that Reuters converted at US$258 a tonne in April.

  • The acid cushion that is supposed to carry smelters through negative treatment charges now appears to be worth most outside China, and China's own export halt looks like the reason.

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