Executive summary (20-second highlights):

The easy reading of this week is a de-escalation.

China extended the pause on its October 2025 rare earth export controls by two months.

The United States also extended the pause on its own Affiliates Rule to the same date.

Both nations are expected to meet in Shenzhen later this month. 

For anyone holding a position that depends on Western access to Chinese rare earths, the risk was pushed back rather than removed, and on its face that is good news.

We agree with the direction. The more useful question is what buyers do in the meantime, because the texts themselves give them nothing to plan against.

Let’s start with China.

On November 9, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and the General Administration of Customs announced that six 2025 announcements, Nos. 55 to 58, 61 and 62, "继续暂停实施" (continue to be suspended) from November 11, 2026 to January 10, 2027.

That is the whole operative sentence. It carries no volume, no destination and no licensing commitment.

The US text came the same way. The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) extended its stay of the Affiliates Rule from November 9, 2026 to January 10, 2027 (link to the original announcement).

The rule applies export restrictions to companies owned 50% or more by entities on certain US restricted lists. The extension gives no rationale and no condition for ending the stay early.

In short, both governments now hold a measure that expires on the same day, and both wrote down only the date.

This matters because, on the US side, the week's conversation was about delivery. On a November 6 call with Vice Premier He Lifeng, joined by Trade Representative Greer, Treasury Secretary Bessent stressed that China should implement the commitments it made in Busan "fully and immediately". The Treasury readout says continued progress depends on concrete results. It does not mention rare earths.

The Financial Times reported that US officials say China has met only about two-thirds of its rare earth commitments, an assessment China disputes. We read the FT report in syndication and could not reach the original.

The US is measuring compliance in shipments. China's text measures it in time. Nothing published by either side converts one into the other.

So, in practice, a buyer who needs non-Chinese Dysprosium and Terbium on a production schedule in 2029 learned this week that neither government has written that quantity down for him. 

MP Materials reported on November 5 that its price protection agreement with the Department of War produced US$8.1M of income in Q3.

The agreement pays MP, per kilogram of NdPr (Neodymium-Praseodymium, the main magnet feed) contained in its concentrate, oxide and metal, the shortfall between US$110 and what the 10-Q calls the "Benchmark Quarterly Average Volume Weighted Price".

The same income was US$17.6M in Q2 and US$59.9M across the first half, which puts Q1 at about US$42.3M.

Meanwhile, MP sold 1,020 tonnes of NdPr in Q3, against 1,006 tonnes in Q2. Volume held, and the payment fell by more than half.

The second is a floor nobody outside the contract can see. And it got bigger.

The more consequential question is who now pays for non-Chinese heavy rare earths, which the US floor at MP does not cover. This week the answer came from a chemical company, not a government.

On November 4 and 5, Viridis Mining and Minerals and Rhodia Operations, a member of the Solvay group, announced a binding long-term offtake for the mixed rare earth carbonate that Viridis plans to produce at its Colossus project in Brazil. The terms, as Viridis filed them: